On the Opening Normal Session of Entry LIVE 2026, wine and spirits business analysts Danny Brager and Dale Stratton made their method to the principle stage to ship their SipSource Tendencies Replace, providing a blunt but reasonable view of the 12 months forward.
For his or her SipSource Tendencies Replace, Brager and Stratton drew on each inner and exterior knowledge units. “We stay in the actual world,” Brager mentioned. “And the actual world and its numbers counsel one thing a bit totally different than we’d hope.”
Listed here are their prime 5 observations concerning the upcoming 12 months in wine and spirits.
1. Factors of Distribution Are Declining
Factors of distribution (PODs) have continued to lower, in keeping with SipSource knowledge, and that loss means fewer shelf placements and fewer visibility for manufacturers.
“We’ve had important drops within the variety of PODs two years in a row,” Stratton mentioned on the occasion. “All channels are shedding distribution, and that’s affecting everybody from producers to glass and cork producers to wholesalers making an attempt to handle stock.”
In accordance with Brager, extra competitors for much less actual property places much more emphasis on standout model tales and data-driven promoting methods. “We’re seeing declining shelf house and extra of us competing for that house. Reality-based decision-making is required greater than ever.”
2. Premiumization Is Below Stress — Particularly on the Edges
Each analysts emphasised a troubling squeeze on worth extremes, as famous by WSWA. “The 2 ends are struggling the worst,” Stratton mentioned. “That low-end worth enterprise continues to wrestle, and the over-$100 excessive finish has actually been beneath stress for about two and a half years.”
“We’re beginning to see convergence in tendencies within the heart,” he continued. “There’s nonetheless premiumization, however we’re nervous about it. Shoppers are extra selective. They’re consuming higher, not essentially extra.”
3. RTDs Now Rival Vodka and Whiskey in Quantity
The expansion of spirit-based ready-to-drink (RTDs) cocktails exhibits no signal of slowing, in keeping with SipSource knowledge. “Spirit RTDs now account for 10% of all spirits {dollars} and an unimaginable 26% of spirits quantity,” mentioned Brager. “Meaning they’re bigger in quantity than vodka or whiskey.”
Brager attributed this shift in RTDs enchantment to what he styled because the “4 Fs”: taste, format, perform and monetary accessibility. “They examine all of the bins: nice style, portability, generally useful advantages and enticing pricing.”
As well as, each wine- and spirits-based RTDs are taking share from malt-based seltzers, in keeping with SipSource knowledge. And the innovation pipeline stays sturdy.
4. Wine Faces Persistent Headwinds — However There Are Brilliant Spots
The wine class stays a difficult one, with general income down 7.1% in 2025, in keeping with SipSource knowledge. However Brager and Stratton each pointed to promising indicators in glowing and higher-end segments.
“Prosecco continues to develop — it was up 3.7% in income final 12 months,” Stratton famous. “Champagne has been unstable for the reason that pandemic however got here again. Imported glowing is up; home glowing is down.”
The bottom-end worth tiers stay in decline, whereas some areas (together with California’s Napa, Sonoma and Paso Robles) are exhibiting alternatives above the $16 mark.
Brager careworn the significance of going deeper: “There’s nonetheless good development when you have a look at varietals, worth tiers and particular areas. You simply should dig to seek out it.”
5. Shoppers Are Blurring Class Strains, and They Need Extra Management
At the moment’s client is “not simply consuming wine or spirits,” Brager mentioned. “They’re exploring beer, non-alc, RTDs, hemp-based drinks and useful drinks, usually all in the identical week.”
Stratton famous this intensifying convergence requires new considering from manufacturers and wholesalers alike. “Shopper alternative is broader than ever earlier than. It’s actually an superior time to be a client, and a problem for the remainder of us.”
Financial pressures, too, proceed to form habits, in keeping with SipSource knowledge. “Groceries price 30% greater than they did in 2020,” Stratton noticed. “And customers are adjusting. However they’re resilient, and so they nonetheless need to have fun.”
Regardless of the headwinds, Brager and Stratton closed with a message of readability and motion. “We imagine in controlling the controllables,” mentioned Stratton. “Sure, there are outdoors forces: the economic system, inflation, tariffs. However we additionally know what we are able to affect, and that’s the place our focus ought to be.”
As Brager identified, this isn’t the primary time the wine and spirits business has confronted main adjustments within the market. “It’s time to reframe the dialog,” he mentioned. “Concentrate on options. Settle for the challenges, adapt and transfer ahead like we’ve at all times finished.”
