The second half of 2025 examined the resilience of the wine and spirits trade.
For the primary time final 12 months, it skilled double-digit declines in two consecutive months (October and November), underscoring the stress constructing throughout the system. Whereas three-month developments had been partially impacted by one fewer transport day in November, the underlying softness in demand stays tough to disregard.
From a quantity perspective, the divergence between the primary and second halves of the 12 months is placing. WSWA’s SipSource reported that January by means of June posted a mixed Wine and Spirits quantity decline of -6.5%, whereas July by means of November worsened to -9.7%. Encouragingly, income developments proceed to outperform quantity throughout most product courses, reflecting ongoing pricing self-discipline and blend advantages—however that alone can’t offset sustained quantity stress.
Hopeful Enhancements to Wine and Spirits
Wanting again at December, progress developments had been anticipated to enhance, in accordance with SipSource, aided by one further transport day in 2025 in comparison with 2024. On the identical time, year-ago comparisons provide restricted readability: December 2024 comps had been already tender, with Spirits down -0.7% and Wine down -4.1%. Nonetheless, December started beneath the load of two consecutive months of sentimental depletions, making execution important.
A number of product courses shall be significantly necessary to observe getting into 2026. Whiskey continues to point out important variability throughout segments—December could reveal whether or not any sub-segment can meaningfully escape, in accordance with SipSource. Tequila Reposado, which has been a shiny spot, may reaffirm its progress trajectory if it experiences a robust vacation efficiency. Champagne additionally bears shut monitoring, because of the celebration of the vacations; the open query is whether or not shopper takeaway will translate into sustained depletions.
Wanting forward in 2026, near-term fundamentals stay challenged. In Q1 2025, Spirits volumes declined -4.9% with income down -3.6%, in accordance with SipSource, whereas Wine noticed a steeper -8.3% decline in each quantity and income. These outcomes set a conservative baseline for expectations because the trade recalibrates provide, pricing and promotional methods.
Whereas December could not reverse the story from 2025, SipSource information reveals that it could actually present necessary indicators about shopper engagement, class resilience and the place momentum could start to rebuild in 2026.
